Energy Price Cap Predictions

The current cap runs from 1 October to 31 December 2026 at £1,723/year for a typical household, a 3.6% rise on July's £1,663, with electricity at 26.32p/kWh (0% VAT) and gas at 7.97p/kWh. Everything after 31 December is a forecast until Ofgem confirms it in late November. The forecasts on this page were last checked on 28 October 2026, and we add each new one to the tracker below as it lands.

The two biggest supplier forecasts have converged again, higher. In early October British Gas, EDF and E.ON Next all sat within £8 of each other at about +21%. British Gas then moved to £2,185 (+26.8%, 15 October), and on 26 October E.ON Next raised its forecast from £2,130 to £2,183 (+26.7%), almost exactly level. On Budget day MSE said January is “expected to rise about 27%”, and the Treasury's own Budget document says it is “predicted to rise by more than 25%”. EDF's latest figure we can confirm is £2,083 (6 October). We now use about £2,180 as our central figure: roughly 27% above October's £1,723, or about £460 a year more for a typical household. Cornwall Insight's £1,999 (+16%, 30 September) is now an even lower outlier, and it predates October's gas rise. The Budget did nothing to the January cap itself (our Budget round-up has what it did change). Our latest news report covers E.ON Next's 26 October rise, our 12 October report explains why every high-price day now matters, our report on Cornwall's forecast has the fuel-by-fuel split, and our earlier report shows what different rises mean for different bills.

Why it jumped. Cornwall Insight — who called October to within £14 — forecast about £1,872 for January in late August, a rise of under 9%. That was calculated from wholesale prices on 25 August. Since then the conflict in the Middle East has pushed wholesale gas sharply higher, and gas sets the price of electricity as well as gas bills. Nobody's method changed; the market did.

Why the range is so wide. Ofgem calculates the January cap from wholesale prices over a thirteen-week window running from mid-August to mid-November. By 24 September only five weeks had passed, so the remaining eight still carry most of the weight. If gas calms down, January could land nearer +15%; if it climbs further, +30% is plausible. This is a forecast, not a confirmed figure.

Nothing new cushions it. The 0% VAT on electricity is already built into October's £1,723, so it doesn't offset January's rise. The 28 October Budget extended it from 31 March to 1 July 2027, which the Treasury says takes around £50 off April's cap. The April forecasts published so far (British Gas £2,190, E.ON Next £2,358) were probably made before that extension.

One caveat Ofgem also flagged: because a slice of network and supplier costs is recovered through unit rates rather than standing charges, spreading those costs over lower assumed consumption nudged the unit rates themselves up slightly — around 0.8% on electricity and 1.3% on gas. Small, but it means the change wasn't purely cosmetic for everyone.

The practical rule: never compare an annual cap figure to one published before July 2026 without checking which basis it uses. A lot of comparison sites and news archives still quote the old numbers, and mixing the two makes a flat cap look like a £200 fall. Every figure on this page uses the new basis.

The honest answer: probably not this year, but nobody can promise either way. The cap is driven overwhelmingly by wholesale costs — over 40% of the total — and those have climbed with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. As long as that geopolitical risk premium sits in the gas market, a meaningful fall is hard to forecast with confidence.

What we can say from the current picture: July brought a confirmed 13% rise, October added 3.6%, and January is forecast to add around 27% more. Ofgem won't confirm January until late November, and the forecast could still move a long way in either direction. There is no fall on the horizon in any current forecast.

But markets cut both ways. The spring showed it — the April 2026 cap actually fell to £1,489 before July's reversal. If the geopolitical pressure eases, wholesale prices can drop quickly — and the people who benefit fastest are those on tariffs that pass falls through immediately rather than waiting for the next quarterly cap. More on that next.

With a rise of around 27% forecast for January, this is the question that matters. Around 40% of accounts — some 22 million — are already on fixed tariffs and won't feel cap moves at all. For everyone else, here's the balanced version:

• Fixing buys certainty — lock rates now and January's forecast jump can't touch you, right through heating season. Martin Lewis's advice to anyone on the cap is to compare the whole market and find the cheapest fix. Octopus's own 12M Fixed averages about £1,948 a year for a typical home: around £225 more than October's cap, but around £232 less than January's forecast, and the 18M Fixed (about £1,888) around £292 less. Octopus repriced both on 27 October and reprices often, so check the live price. See our fixed vs variable guide
• The catch: fixes priced today bake in elevated wholesale costs — if the geopolitical premium unwinds and prices fall, you could be stuck above the going rate. Check the exit fee before signing: Octopus charges £50 per fuel on its 12M Fixed, against £25–£150 elsewhere, and no supplier can charge one in the last 49 days
• Smart tariffs are the other side of the bet — Octopus Tracker follows wholesale prices daily and Agile Octopus reprices every half hour, so any wholesale fall reaches your bill immediately instead of waiting months for the next cap — with built-in price ceilings protecting you from spikes
• Waiting has a cost too — new fixes are repriced as wholesale prices move, so if January's forecast keeps climbing, so will the price of fixing. Octopus charges no exit fees on its variable tariffs, so you can switch to Flexible Octopus now and decide on a fix once you see your own quote

If certainty before winter is what helps you sleep, fix. If you believe forecasts can move in both directions and your household can be a little nimble, flexible and smart tariffs keep you positioned for the upside. The only clearly bad strategy is drifting on an average supplier's default tariff and taking every rise at full force.